The first half of January was quite mild across the state. The second half has been more winterlike, with snow falling across most of Kansas in the past week. With this snow cover, there has been a return to more seasonable temperatures, but it’s nowhere near as cold as it was just over a month ago, when Kansas was plunged into a deep freeze. Every Kansas Mesonet site fell below zero on December 22, when low temperatures ranged from -19°F at Sherman (Sherman County) to -3°F at Ashland 8 S (Clark County), courtesy of the coldest air mass to invade Kansas in nearly two years. For those longing for springtime, a hopeful sign is when the daily normal low temperature start to increase. In this report, we take a closer look at when normal lows begin increasing each year.
The normal lows referenced in this report are for the 30-year period 1991 to 2020, as issued by the National Centers for Environmental Information. Table 1 contains information for 36 locations in the state, four from each of Kansas’ nine climate divisions. From the table, we see that the coldest normal lows are in the teens in the northern third of Kansas, and increase as one goes south, into the low to mid 20s. The date that each location first reaches its coldest normal low is earlier in the western half of the state, where it typically occurs in December, while in the eastern part of Kansas, that date is in January.
The number of consecutive days on which each location has its lowest normal low varies greatly around the state, from as short as 5 to as long as 51 days. A longer period of minimum normal lows does not imply a colder location, however. Case in point: the shortest run, 5 days, is in Fort Scott. Their minimum normal low is 21°F, two degrees colder than nearby Chanute, where their minimum normal low of 23°F lingers for 23 days. The longest run, 51 days, is in Goodland. Their minimum normal low is 17°F, two degrees warmer than a couple of counties away in Oberlin, where the minimum normal low of 15°F only lasts for 15 days. It’s important to note that 30-year normals are determined by not only calculating the averages for each day, but also by smoothing them across adjacent days to ensure gradual daily changes throughout the year. Thus, all of the variation in periods of minimum normal lows are more likely due to mathematics than meteorology.
When do normal low temperatures begin to increase?
The date when normal lows begin increasing, like the periods of coldest normal lows, varies quite a bit. There is no geographical tendency for one part of the state to start seeing increasing normal lows earlier than another. In fact, the earliest and latest “warm-up date” are both in the same division: northwest Kansas, where Oberlin’s normal lows start warming on January 10, but Goodland’s normal lows don’t increase until February 4. If all the “warmup dates” are averaged together, the average date when normal lows start increasing in Kansas is January 25. So, by the time you’re reading this, things are already looking up in many areas!
Looking further ahead, the first day when the normal lows are above freezing is in early to mid-March in south central and east central Kansas. Further north and west, this date is later in March. In the northwest, the last normal low at or below freezing is later, in early April. Thus, the threat of freezing conditions will linger for at least one to two more months, depending on your location. But you can rest assured that increasing normal lows will start very soon, if they have not already at your location. And there’s more good news: meteorological spring begins on March 1, just over one month away!
Table 1. List of the coldest average daily minimum temperatures, the first and last dates of the coldest average minimum, the number of days in between the first and last dates, and the first date in meteorological spring when the average daily minimum is above freezing for selected locations in Kansas.
|
Division |
Location |
Coldest Normal Low (°F) |
First Date of Coldest Normal |
Last Date of Coldest Normal |
Number of days with Coldest Normal |
Date when normal low first exceeds 32° |
|
Northwest |
Colby |
15 |
20-Dec |
28-Jan |
40 |
10-Apr |
|
Goodland |
17 |
16-Dec |
4-Feb |
51 |
8-Apr |
|
|
Oberlin |
15 |
27-Dec |
10-Jan |
15 |
4-Apr |
|
|
St. Francis |
15 |
18-Dec |
19-Jan |
33 |
7-Apr |
|
|
North Central |
Concordia |
19 |
31-Dec |
1-Feb |
33 |
18-Mar |
|
Phillipsburg |
16 |
1-Jan |
29-Jan |
29 |
31-Mar |
|
|
Plainville |
17 |
5-Jan |
30-Jan |
26 |
28-Mar |
|
|
Smith Center |
16 |
28-Dec |
2-Feb |
37 |
30-Mar |
|
|
Northeast |
Hiawatha |
15 |
5-Jan |
27-Jan |
23 |
26-Mar |
|
Holton |
15 |
5-Jan |
26-Jan |
22 |
26-Mar |
|
|
Manhattan |
18 |
14-Jan |
21-Jan |
8 |
19-Mar |
|
|
Marysville |
15 |
7-Jan |
27-Jan |
21 |
24-Mar |
|
|
West Central |
Quinter |
17 |
31-Dec |
21-Jan |
22 |
31-Mar |
|
Scott City |
16 |
21-Dec |
28-Jan |
39 |
5-Apr |
|
|
Tribune |
16 |
18-Dec |
24-Jan |
38 |
8-Apr |
|
|
WaKeeney |
17 |
1-Jan |
23-Jan |
23 |
28-Mar |
|
|
Central |
Great Bend |
18 |
30-Dec |
28-Jan |
30 |
24-Mar |
|
Hays |
17 |
24-Dec |
2-Feb |
41 |
24-Mar |
|
|
Russell |
19 |
24-Dec |
2-Feb |
41 |
20-Mar |
|
|
Salina |
20 |
29-Dec |
28-Jan |
31 |
14-Mar |
|
|
East Central |
Emporia |
20 |
14-Jan |
21-Jan |
8 |
13-Mar |
|
Garnett |
19 |
15-Jan |
27-Jan |
13 |
15-Mar |
|
|
Olathe |
21 |
6-Jan |
28-Jan |
23 |
9-Mar |
|
|
Topeka |
20 |
5-Jan |
30-Jan |
26 |
11-Mar |
|
|
Southwest |
Ashland |
18 |
29-Dec |
18-Jan |
21 |
20-Mar |
|
Dodge City |
20 |
28-Dec |
24-Jan |
28 |
20-Mar |
|
|
Elkhart |
21 |
22-Dec |
23-Jan |
33 |
21-Mar |
|
|
Garden City |
17 |
27-Dec |
13-Jan |
18 |
27-Mar |
|
|
South Central |
Hutchinson |
20 |
25-Dec |
31-Jan |
38 |
15-Mar |
|
Pratt |
19 |
29-Dec |
27-Jan |
30 |
20-Mar |
|
|
Wichita |
22 |
8-Jan |
23-Jan |
16 |
7-Mar |
|
|
Winfield |
24 |
28-Dec |
1-Feb |
36 |
4-Mar |
|
|
Southeast |
Chanute |
23 |
7-Jan |
29-Jan |
23 |
5-Mar |
|
Coffeyville |
24 |
7-Jan |
25-Jan |
19 |
1-Mar |
|
|
Columbus |
23 |
6-Jan |
26-Jan |
21 |
5-Mar |
|
|
Fort Scott |
21 |
15-Jan |
19-Jan |
5 |
7-Mar |
Matthew Sittel, Assistant State Climatologist
msittel@ksu.edu