A white Christmas, by meteorological definition, occurs if there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning, December 25, at 7 AM local time. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI, www.ncei.noaa.gov) has produced an official map with the probabilities of a white Christmas across the lower 48 states. The map is based on 30-year climatological normals that are updated by NCEI every 10 years. The most recent edition is based on data for the latest set of normals, spanning the years 1991-2020 (Figure 1).
There are only a few areas of the country where a white Christmas is a near certainty: northern Minnesota, northern New England, and the highest terrain of the western United States, such as the Rockies, the Sierra Nevadas, and the Cascades.
Figure 1. The probability of a white Christmas across the lower 48 states. Source: noaaclimate.gov
In Kansas, the probabilities are highest in the north along the Nebraska border and lowest in the southeast. The highest probability in the state is in Mankato (Jewell County), with a 33% chance of a white Christmas. Table 1 lists the probabilities of a white Christmas at selected locations around Kansas.
Table 1. White Christmas probability (1991-2020), average snowfall, and record temperatures for selected Kansas locations.
|
City |
White Christmas probability |
Most recent (depth) |
Deepest 12/25 snow cover |
Avg. Dec. Snowfall |
Avg. High/Low on 12/25 |
Record High/Low on 12/25 |
|
Manhattan |
22% |
2022 (1”) |
7” (2013) |
4.8” |
41° / 20° |
70° (1889) -13° (1983) |
|
Topeka |
18% |
2022 (1”) |
6” (1983) |
4.1” |
41° / 22° |
68° (1922,2016) -11° (1983) |
|
Wichita |
12% |
2022 (2”) |
4” (1962, 2007) |
3.1” |
44° / 24° |
68° (2019) -6° (1983) |
|
Dodge City |
17% |
2013 (3”) |
12” (1997) |
4.0” |
44° / 21° |
74° (1950) -13° (1879) |
|
Goodland |
22% |
2023 (2”) |
13” (1941) |
5.2” |
43° / 17° |
74° (1950) -9° (2012) |
|
Hays |
21% |
2011 (7”) |
11” (1945) |
3.3” |
42° / 17° |
73° (1955) -11° (1983) |
|
Concordia |
23% |
2017 (1”) |
10” (1983) |
4.5” |
39° / 20° |
64° (2016) -8° (1983) |
Looking back at 2023
Parts of northern Kansas had a white Christmas in 2023, where as much as 6 inches of snow was on the ground in Belleville on Christmas morning, thanks to a departing storm system that initially brought heavy rain to eastern Kansas on Christmas Eve. As the low pressure moved away, colder air was drawn in to the state and combined with lingering moisture to generate the snowfall. Other locations that had a White Christmas in 2023 include Beloit (5”), Saint Francis (3”), Goodland (2”) and Salina (1”). Snow fell on Christmas Day in a number of locations, but after the 7 AM deadline, so while it wasn’t officially a white Christmas, there was accumulating snow to admire during the day. Totals were significant in some areas; Scandia in Republic County picked up 8 inches of snow by the morning of the 26th. Other areas with snow on Christmas Day include Clay Center (3”), Topeka (1.3”) and Manhattan (1.1”).
Will 2024 be a white Christmas?
Is there any chance of a repeat performance this year? The Climate Prediction Center’s 6 to 10-day temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures, with probabilities at or above 80% statewide (Figure 2). But the entire state has elevated chances of above normal precipitation (Figure 3). With above-normal temperatures expected, it’s more likely that if we get precipitation during this time frame, it will fall as rain rather than as snow. The other challenge is timing: would the precipitation occur on or just before the 25th? The forecast could change between now and Christmas Day, but as of now, a white Christmas looks unlikely. While a disappointment for some, above-normal temperatures and no snow would be welcome for those with travel plans. Have a happy and safe holiday season!
Figure 2. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14-day outlook for temperatures.
Figure 3. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14-day outlook for precipitation.
Matthew Sittel, Assistant State Climatologist
msittel@ksu.edu
Tags: weather snow white Christmas