In the Sept. 9 issue of the Agronomy eUpdate we reported on the flooding rains that occurred in a 24-hour period ending 8 a.m. Sept. 9, 2016 at the Haysville Mesonet station. Even more rain fell after that time. Just how common are the kind of heavy rainfall events such as occurred last week in south central Kansas?
The Hydrometerological Design Studies Center, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has produced a document that answers that question. NOAA Atlas 14, addresses the frequency of rainfall events on time-scales ranging from 5 minutes to 60 days. Other parameters, just as the probable maximum precipitation are also available.
The 24-hour total of 7.77 inches reported from the Haysville Mesonet station falls in the 100-year return rates, while the 2-day total of 9.78 inches has a 200-year return frequency. Even with a dry start to the week, the 7-day total of 10.86 falls as a 100-year event. The 30-day total of 16.92 inches has a 100-year return frequency as well. The table below shows the recurrence intervals, with the recent events highlighted:
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POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES for HAYSVILLE, KS |
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WITH 90% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION |
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NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 8, Version 2 |
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Duration |
Average recurrence interval (years) |
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1 |
2 |
5 |
10 |
25 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
500 |
1000 |
|
|
60-min |
1.38 |
1.58 |
1.94 |
2.24 |
2.68 |
3.03 |
3.39 |
3.77 |
4.29 |
4.69 |
|
(1.19‑ 1.61) |
(1.37‑ 1.86) |
(1.67‑ 2.28) |
(1.92‑ 2.65) |
(2.23‑ 3.27) |
(2.46‑ 3.74) |
(2.66‑ 4.28) |
(2.84‑ 4.88) |
(3.11‑ 5.69) |
(3.32‑ 6.31) |
|
|
2-hr |
1.68 |
1.94 |
2.39 |
2.79 |
3.38 |
3.86 |
4.37 |
4.91 |
5.67 |
6.28 |
|
(1.46‑ 1.96) |
(1.68‑ 2.26) |
(2.07‑ 2.79) |
(2.40‑ 3.27) |
(2.83‑ 4.12) |
(3.16‑ 4.76) |
(3.46‑ 5.50) |
(3.73‑ 6.34) |
(4.15‑ 7.50) |
(4.46‑ 8.38) |
|
|
3-hr |
1.86 |
2.15 |
2.67 |
3.15 |
3.86 |
4.46 |
5.11 |
5.8 |
6.79 |
7.59 |
|
(1.62‑ 2.15) |
(1.87‑ 2.50) |
(2.32‑ 3.11) |
(2.72‑ 3.68) |
(3.26‑ 4.71) |
(3.67‑ 5.50) |
(4.06‑ 6.43) |
(4.44‑ 7.48) |
(5.00‑ 8.97) |
(5.42‑ 10.1) |
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|
6-hr |
2.18 |
2.53 |
3.17 |
3.77 |
4.67 |
5.43 |
6.25 |
7.14 |
8.41 |
9.45 |
|
(1.91‑ 2.51) |
(2.22‑ 2.92) |
(2.77‑ 3.67) |
(3.27‑ 4.37) |
(3.97‑ 5.67) |
(4.49‑ 6.65) |
(5.00‑ 7.82) |
(5.50‑ 9.16) |
(6.24‑ 11.0) |
(6.79‑ 12.5) |
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|
12-hr |
2.52 |
2.95 |
3.7 |
4.38 |
5.39 |
6.22 |
7.11 |
8.06 |
9.4 |
10.5 |
|
(2.22‑ 2.88) |
(2.60‑ 3.38) |
(3.25‑ 4.25) |
(3.82‑ 5.05) |
(4.59‑ 6.47) |
(5.17‑ 7.55) |
(5.72‑ 8.81) |
(6.23‑ 10.2) |
(7.00‑ 12.2) |
(7.59‑ 13.7) |
|
|
24-hr |
2.9 |
3.39 |
4.24 |
4.98 |
6.05 |
6.92 |
7.83 |
8.78 |
10.1 |
11.1 |
|
(2.56‑ 3.29) |
(3.00‑ 3.86) |
(3.74‑ 4.83) |
(4.37‑ 5.70) |
(5.17‑ 7.18) |
(5.77‑ 8.30) |
(6.32‑ 9.60) |
(6.82‑ 11.0) |
(7.57‑ 13.0) |
(8.13‑ 14.5) |
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|
2-day |
3.32 |
3.87 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
6.74 |
7.66 |
8.61 |
9.6 |
11 |
12 |
|
(2.95‑ 3.74) |
(3.44‑ 4.37) |
(4.25‑ 5.43) |
(4.94‑ 6.36) |
(5.78‑ 7.92) |
(6.42‑ 9.11) |
(6.99‑ 10.5) |
(7.50‑ 12.0) |
(8.25‑ 14.0) |
(8.82‑ 15.6) |
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|
7-day |
4.54 |
5.24 |
6.39 |
7.36 |
8.71 |
9.77 |
10.8 |
11.9 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
|
(4.08‑ 5.05) |
(4.71‑ 5.84) |
(5.73‑ 7.14) |
(6.56‑ 8.26) |
(7.53‑ 10.1) |
(8.26‑ 11.4) |
(8.88‑ 13.0) |
(9.41‑ 14.6) |
(10.2‑ 16.8) |
(10.8‑ 18.5) |
|
|
30-day |
8.33 |
9.4 |
11.1 |
12.5 |
14.3 |
15.7 |
17 |
18.3 |
19.9 |
21.1 |
|
(7.58‑ 9.13) |
(8.54‑ 10.3) |
(10.1‑ 12.2) |
(11.3‑ 13.8) |
(12.5‑ 16.2) |
(13.4‑ 18.0) |
(14.1‑ 19.9) |
(14.6‑ 22.0) |
(15.4‑ 24.6) |
(15.9‑ 26.6) |
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The full atlas, with access to other locations, can be found online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/index.html
Additional precipitation maps for Kansas can be found on the Kansas Climate website at: http://climate.k-state.edu/
Mary Knapp
mknapp@ksu.edu
Christopher Redmond
christopherredmond@ksu.edu
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