Meteorological fall concluded on November 30. In this article, we take a look back at weather highlights from the past three months.
Fall Temperatures
It was a warm fall, as September, October, and November all averaged above normal. September’s statewide average temperature, based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), was 70.1°, or 1.3° above normal. It ranked as the 46th warmest September in 131 years of records. October was more above normal than September; NCEI’s average temperature was 61.5°, or 5.3° above normal. This was good enough for the 7th warmest October. NCEI’s official numbers for November won’t be released until December 8, but based on data from the Kansas Mesonet, the estimated average temperature for November was 46.5°, or 3.5° above normal.
When all three months are averaged together (two official months and an estimate), the estimated average temperature for the entirety of meteorological fall is 59.4°, or 3.3° above normal (Figure 1). Based on this value, fall 2025 should be in the top 10, as the estimate would rank as the 8th warmest fall on record if this number matches NCEI’s official value. Out of the 91 days of meteorological fall, 71% of them (65 days) were above normal. The longest run of above normal days was 17, from September 19 through October 5, a mark that was challenged in late November. November 11 through 25 averaged above normal, a 15-day stretch that ended when colder conditions arrived right before Thanksgiving and persisted through the end of the month.
Figure 1. Seasonal departure from the average temperature for the meteorological fall. Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center.
The first freeze in Kansas was observed on October 18 in Hamilton County. It took three weeks for every other location in the state to record a freeze, as the holdouts in eastern Kansas fell to below freezing on November 9, after a push of unseasonably cold air swept across Kansas. As a result, the few stations that recorded their first freeze on the 9th recorded a hard freeze the next morning. Every Mesonet site fell to 23 degrees or colder on the morning of the 10th and remained below 28 degrees for at least four consecutive hours, the criteria for a hard freeze. In general, most locations in Kansas experienced a later freeze than normal, but the timing of southeastern Kansas’ first freeze was close to normal.
Fall Precipitation
September’s average precipitation was 3.40”, or 0.88” above normal. October’s average of 1.99” was below the normal amount of 2.32”. As for November, it began on a very dry note, as most locations in the state experienced precipitation-free conditions for the first two-thirds of the month. Fall’s first snowflakes were recorded on November 9 in association with the cold front passage that delivered the hard freeze to all areas. Only a trace of snow was observed at Topeka, with additional reports of flurries in the Manhattan and Kansas City areas. Two precipitation events later in the month delivered much-needed moisture to Kansas. By month’s end, the estimated average precipitation was 1.79”, nearly half an inch above the normal of 1.30”. When all three months are combined, the estimated average precipitation of 7.18” is 1.04” above normal. Based on this value, fall 2025 would rank as the 37th wettest meteorological fall on record.
The highest departures from normal precipitation were in central Kansas (Figure 2), and in a few locations, the bulk of the surplus came from a single event. On September 8, parts of Lincoln and Ottawa Counties were drenched by over 9 inches of rainfall in just 12 hours. Nearby, at least 6 inches fell in portions of Mitchell, Ellsworth, and Saline Counties. These areas average around 6 inches of rain for the entirety of meteorological fall, so a wetter-than-normal fall was already guaranteed just eight days into the season. Eastern Kansas had the largest precipitation deficits during the fall. Areas along the Missouri border from Kansas City to Pittsburg were 4 to 6 inches in arrears by the end of November. As a result, drought conditions developed and worsened.
Figure 2. Seasonal departure from average precipitation for meteorological fall. Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Around 10% of the state was in drought status (D1 or worse) on the US Drought Monitor (USDM) map by mid-November, an increase from 3.3% at the start of September. The precipitation in late November improved conditions somewhat. Still, the overall change for fall was one of worsening in the east, while the west improved to or remained in drought-free status during the fall (Figure 3). The final USDM map update of the fall, issued on November 25, showed just over 75% of the state free of any drought status. This was a slight decrease from 80% at the beginning of fall. Still, the collective conditions across the state were much better than at this point last year, when 31% of the state was in drought status and just 30% of the state was drought-free.
Figure 3. Changes in US Drought Monitor category across Kansas during meteorological fall 2025. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.
What will this winter hold for Kansas? The start of meteorological winter has been a cold, snowy affair. Northeast and east central Kansas saw measurable snow on the first day of December, with as much as 5.5” reported in the Lawrence area. The Scandia and Rossville Mesonet sites fell to 0° on the morning of the 2nd, the coldest readings in the state since late February. Is this a harbinger of a bad winter ahead?
Matthew C. Sittel, Assistant State Climatologist
msittel@ksu.edu
Tags: Climate weather fall weather