Grain sorghum yield potential: An on-farm calculation

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Even though estimating crop yields before harvest can be difficult, having these estimates is valuable information for producers as it helps them to make relevant decisions on inputs.

When can I start making sorghum yield estimates?

As the sorghum crop gets closer to maturity, yield estimates will be more accurate. Nonetheless, we can start taking yield estimations three to four weeks after flowering (from soft to hard dough stages). At these stages, the final seed number can still change. In addition to the seed number, the seed weight will be only partially determined – approximately 50 to 75% of dry mass accumulation as compared to the final weight attained at maturity.

A companion article in this eUpdate issue, “Grain sorghum yield potential: Understanding the main yield components,” discusses each of the main sorghum yield components in more detail.

Variability within the field

When estimating sorghum yields using the on-farm approach, variability between plants needs to be properly accounted for (see next section). Another important factor is the variation between different areas in the field. In general, yield estimations should be performed in at least 5 to 10 sections of the field to account for field variability.

On-farm approach for estimating sorghum yields

The estimation of sorghum yields should consider the main driving forces:

1. Total number of heads per unit area [number of plants per acre x heads per plant]
2. Total number of seeds per head
3. Number of seeds per pound
4. Pounds per bushel, or test weight, which for sorghum is 56 lbs/bushel

 

The final equation for estimating sorghum yield in bu/acre is:

Take the following steps for making sorghum yield estimates:

Step 1. Number of heads per unit area:

For this on-farm approach, start by counting the number of heads from a 17.4-foot length of row when the sorghum is in 30-inch row spacing. This sample area represents 1/1000^th the area of an acre. If the sorghum is in 15-inch row spacing, then count the number of heads in two rows. For a 7.5-inch spacing, take into account four rows. In all scenarios, the area counted will equal 1/1000^th of an acre.

Take head counts in several different field areas to properly account for the potential yield variability. If the proportion of smaller heads (less than 3 inches in height) is very low (< 5%), those heads could be avoided due to the smaller proportion for determining the final yield estimation.

Step 2. Estimation of the number of seeds per head:

The seed number is, by far, one of the most complicated yield components that needs to be estimated. The total number of seeds per head can vary from 100 to 5,000 seeds per head, but almost ¾ of the seed number distribution is around 1,500 to 2,500 seeds per head.

A quick method uses an estimate of seed counts per head. We can utilize a very simple association between the yield level, conditions around pollination/grain set time, and the number of grains per head (Figure 1). The number of seeds per pound, or seed weight, is also a factor we need to estimate, but this factor is relevant for yield contribution and has a less clear relationship with yield (Figure 1).

This method of estimating seed counts is summarized in Table 1. If conditions were very poor during pollination and grain set and the general yield environment is low, the total number of seeds per head will average around 500-1,000 seeds per head (900; Table 1). If conditions around flowering were very favorable and the general yield environment was very high, then the number of seeds per head could be around 1,500 to 3,500 (2,500). Intermediate yield environment scenarios can occur if a portion of the three-to-four week period around flowering was favorable and part of it was unfavorable. In that case, the number of seeds per head could range from 1,000-3,500, with an average of 1,745 seeds per head.

This information is provided only for general guidance on estimating sorghum yield potential using the on-farm approach.
 

Figure 1. Relationship between grain yield and yield components, seeds per head (left panel), and seed weight (right panel). The number of seeds per head has the most direct relationship with yield.

 

Table 1. Total number of seeds per head and seed weight components.

Yield range (bu/acre)	Crop condition	Average Seeds per head	Average Seed weight (g/1000)	Number of observations
<50	Very poor	900	24.5	154
50-100	Poor	1500	25.5	391
100-150	Fair	2000	26.2	495
150-200	Good	2500	25.6	129
>200	Excellent	3330	25.5	5

 

Step 3. Estimation of the Seed Weight:

A similar procedure can be followed to estimate the seed weight (Table 1). For the seed weight component, the dataset showed a very narrow variation as compared with the variability in the seed number. Generally, lower seed weight is expected at low yield, but the difference among yield levels is negligible. Table 2 shows the conversion from average seed weight to seeds per pound.
 

Table 2. Seed weight, seeds per pound.

Yield range (bu/acre)	Crop condition	Average Seed weight (g/1000)	Seeds per pound
<50	Very poor	24.5	18520
50-100	Poor	25.5	17793
100-150	Fair	26.2	17318
150-200	Good	25.6	17723
>200	Excellent	25.5	17793

 

Step 4. Final calculation using the “On-Farm” Yield Estimation Approach:

 

Example A. Good Crop Condition:

Irrigated sorghum with adequate plant density (48,000 plants/acre), average number of tillers per plant of 1.3, and good yield environment with adequate flowering and grain filling:

(48 plants in 17.4 foot -1/1000^th of an acre- x 1.3 fertile tillers per plant) = 62 heads/acre
Yield Estimation = [(62 x 2,500) x 1,000 ÷ 17,723] ÷ 56 = 156 bu/acre

 

Example B. Poor to Fair Crop Condition:

Dryland sorghum with adequate plant density (40,000 plants/acre), average number of tillers per plant of 1.3, and poor flowering but fair grain filling:
Yield Estimation = [(52 x 1,500) x 1,000 ÷ 17,723] ÷ 56 = 79 bu/acre

 

Example C. Very Poor Crop Condition:

Dryland sorghum with adequate plant density (40,000 plants/acre), average number of tillers per plant of 1.0, and poor yield environment and growing season (poor flowering and grain filling):
Yield Estimation = [(40 x 900) x 1,000 ÷ 18,520] ÷ 56 = 35 bu/acre

 

Ignacio A. Ciampitti, Farming Systems
ciampitti@ksu.edu

Tags:  sorghum grain sorghum yield potential