A closer look at normal low temperatures for Kansas

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The first half of January was quite mild across the state. The second half has been more winterlike, with snow falling across most of Kansas in the past week. With this snow cover, there has been a return to more seasonable temperatures, but it’s nowhere near as cold as it was just over a month ago, when Kansas was plunged into a deep freeze. Every Kansas Mesonet site fell below zero on December 22, when low temperatures ranged from -19°F at Sherman (Sherman County) to -3°F at Ashland 8 S (Clark County), courtesy of the coldest air mass to invade Kansas in nearly two years. For those longing for springtime, a hopeful sign is when the daily normal low temperature start to increase. In this report, we take a closer look at when normal lows begin increasing each year.

The normal lows referenced in this report are for the 30-year period 1991 to 2020, as issued by the National Centers for Environmental Information. Table 1 contains information for 36 locations in the state, four from each of Kansas’ nine climate divisions. From the table, we see that the coldest normal lows are in the teens in the northern third of Kansas, and increase as one goes south, into the low to mid 20s. The date that each location first reaches its coldest normal low is earlier in the western half of the state, where it typically occurs in December, while in the eastern part of Kansas, that date is in January.

The number of consecutive days on which each location has its lowest normal low varies greatly around the state, from as short as 5 to as long as 51 days. A longer period of minimum normal lows does not imply a colder location, however. Case in point: the shortest run, 5 days, is in Fort Scott. Their minimum normal low is 21°F, two degrees colder than nearby Chanute, where their minimum normal low of 23°F lingers for 23 days. The longest run, 51 days, is in Goodland. Their minimum normal low is 17°F, two degrees warmer than a couple of counties away in Oberlin, where the minimum normal low of 15°F only lasts for 15 days. It’s important to note that 30-year normals are determined by not only calculating the averages for each day, but also by smoothing them across adjacent days to ensure gradual daily changes throughout the year. Thus, all of the variation in periods of minimum normal lows are more likely due to mathematics than meteorology.

When do normal low temperatures begin to increase?

The date when normal lows begin increasing, like the periods of coldest normal lows, varies quite a bit. There is no geographical tendency for one part of the state to start seeing increasing normal lows earlier than another. In fact, the earliest and latest “warm-up date” are both in the same division: northwest Kansas, where Oberlin’s normal lows start warming on January 10, but Goodland’s normal lows don’t increase until February 4. If all the “warmup dates” are averaged together, the average date when normal lows start increasing in Kansas is January 25. So, by the time you’re reading this, things are already looking up in many areas! 

Looking further ahead, the first day when the normal lows are above freezing is in early to mid-March in south central and east central Kansas. Further north and west, this date is later in March. In the northwest, the last normal low at or below freezing is later, in early April. Thus, the threat of freezing conditions will linger for at least one to two more months, depending on your location. But you can rest assured that increasing normal lows will start very soon, if they have not already at your location. And there’s more good news: meteorological spring begins on March 1, just over one month away!


Table 1. List of the coldest average daily minimum temperatures, the first and last dates of the coldest average minimum, the number of days in between the first and last dates, and the first date in meteorological spring when the average daily minimum is above freezing for selected locations in Kansas.

Division

Location

Coldest

Normal

Low

(°F)

First Date of Coldest Normal

Last Date of Coldest Normal

Number of days with Coldest Normal

Date when normal low first exceeds 32°

Northwest

Colby

15

20-Dec

28-Jan

40

10-Apr

Goodland

17

16-Dec

4-Feb

51

8-Apr

Oberlin

15

27-Dec

10-Jan

15

4-Apr

St. Francis

15

18-Dec

19-Jan

33

7-Apr

North Central

Concordia

19

31-Dec

1-Feb

33

18-Mar

Phillipsburg

16

1-Jan

29-Jan

29

31-Mar

Plainville

17

5-Jan

30-Jan

26

28-Mar

Smith Center

16

28-Dec

2-Feb

37

30-Mar

Northeast

Hiawatha

15

5-Jan

27-Jan

23

26-Mar

Holton

15

5-Jan

26-Jan

22

26-Mar

Manhattan

18

14-Jan

21-Jan

8

19-Mar

Marysville

15

7-Jan

27-Jan

21

24-Mar

West Central

Quinter

17

31-Dec

21-Jan

22

31-Mar

Scott City

16

21-Dec

28-Jan

39

5-Apr

Tribune

16

18-Dec

24-Jan

38

8-Apr

WaKeeney

17

1-Jan

23-Jan

23

28-Mar

Central

Great Bend

18

30-Dec

28-Jan

30

24-Mar

Hays

17

24-Dec

2-Feb

41

24-Mar

Russell

19

24-Dec

2-Feb

41

20-Mar

Salina

20

29-Dec

28-Jan

31

14-Mar

East Central

Emporia

20

14-Jan

21-Jan

8

13-Mar

Garnett

19

15-Jan

27-Jan

13

15-Mar

Olathe

21

6-Jan

28-Jan

23

9-Mar

Topeka

20

5-Jan

30-Jan

26

11-Mar

Southwest

Ashland

18

29-Dec

18-Jan

21

20-Mar

Dodge City

20

28-Dec

24-Jan

28

20-Mar

Elkhart

21

22-Dec

23-Jan

33

21-Mar

Garden City

17

27-Dec

13-Jan

18

27-Mar

South Central

Hutchinson

20

25-Dec

31-Jan

38

15-Mar

Pratt

19

29-Dec

27-Jan

30

20-Mar

Wichita

22

8-Jan

23-Jan

16

7-Mar

Winfield

24

28-Dec

1-Feb

36

4-Mar

Southeast

Chanute

23

7-Jan

29-Jan

23

5-Mar

Coffeyville

24

7-Jan

25-Jan

19

1-Mar

Columbus

23

6-Jan

26-Jan

21

5-Mar

Fort Scott

21

15-Jan

19-Jan

5

7-Mar

 

 

Matthew Sittel, Assistant State Climatologist
msittel@ksu.edu


Tags:  winter weather climate cold temperatures